Outlook on China’s Industrial Development during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

【Authors】

QU Yongyi

【WorkUnit】

Institute of Industrial Economics, CASS, 100006.

【Abstract】

Since the launch of the 14th Five-Year Plan （2021-2025）, China’s industrial sector has retained its position as the world’s largest, characterized by sustained expansion, structural optimization, and accelerated technological innovation. The shift from traditional to new growth drivers has gained momentum, especially through the rapid digital and intelligent transformation. These developments have laid a solid foundation in terms of scale, quality, structure, and dynamism for China’s high-quality industrial development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period （2026-2030）.
The 15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical stage in China’s transition from a major industrial country to an industrial powerhouse. To achieve this, China must adhere to five key strategic principles: 1） maintaining industrial scale and proportion as a fundamental safeguard; 2） accelerating industrial development to strengthen global competitiveness; 3） enhancing industry’s role as a vital platform for innovation in technologies, industries and business models; 4） promoting industrial development in less-developed regions; 5） sustaining industry as a key driver of household income growth and livelihood improvement.
In terms of the environment, several new opportunities and conditions are emerging: technological revolutions are opening new windows of opportunity; the domestic market is unleashing potential; improved factor efficiency is a new source of input; the digital economy is injecting fresh momentum; and outbound investment is expected to accelerate further. However, persistent challenges remain: the mechanisms for original innovation still need improvement; consumer market potential has yet to be fully tapped; demographic shifts threaten labor supply stability; China faces a “dual squeeze” from the developed countries and emerging economies; and enterprises must further enhance their capacity for global development.
China’s industrial development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period must seize critical growth windows while effectively responding to external challenges. This will support the improvement of a high-level market economy system, promote the development of New Quality Productive Forces, and establish an indigenous innovation system amid global industrial chain restructuring. Under the overall approach of achieving “precise and secure” industrial development, the sector must aim for stable growth in total industrial output, enhanced industrial development security, and steadily increasing innovation capacity.
Guided by these overarching goals, the focus should be on deepening new-type industrialization, vigorously developing New Quality Productive Forces in industry, improving the modern industrial system, strengthening core capabilities for industrial transformation and upgrading, and promoting high-level industrial opening-up. These efforts will make greater contributions to building China into a strong nation and realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

JEL: L60, O14, O25

【KeyWords】

The 15th Five-Year Plan Period, China’s Industry, New-Type Industrialization, New Quality Productive Forces