Can Provincial Sub-centers Promote Coordinated Regional Economic Development?

【Authors】

DING Renzhong, ZHANG Xiaolong

【WorkUnit】

Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 611130.

【Abstract】

The development of provincial sub-centers has long been recognized as an important strategy for promoting coordinated regional economic development. Scientifically assessing the economic effects of provincial sub-centers is key to optimizing regional policy design. This paper employs a quasi-natural experiment approach, utilizing panel data from 25 provinces and 286 cities over the period of 2000 to 2022 to examine the causal relationship between the development of provincial sub-centers and regional economic coordinated development. 
The findings indicate that provincial sub-centers significantly promote coordinated regional economic development. This effect is primarily driven by the optimization of the industrial layout and the growth pole spillover mechanism. Specifically, the establishment of provincial sub-centers triggers the “catch-up effect” among small- and medium-sized cities, thereby narrowing economic disparities within the region. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that in provinces with more cities and those with cities located farther from the provincial capital, the effect of provincial sub-center development on promoting coordinated regional economic development is more significant. 
This paper quantitatively evaluates the economic effects of provincial sub-center development and provides policy suggestions for optimizing provincial sub-center development initiatives, offering theoretical support and empirical evidence for the formulation and adjustment of strategies for regional coordinated economic development.

JEL: R11, R58, O18

【KeyWords】

Provincial Sub-Center, Coordinated Regional Economic Development, Time-Varying DID